Tropical Storm Douglas (70 mph) threatens Mexico's Pacific coast with heavy rain, storm surge, and inland flooding through July 4, 2026.
⛈️ OPEN LIVE 3D WEATHER ALERTSTropical Storm Douglas strengthened to 70 mph sustained winds 790 km southwest of Baja California on July 2, 2026, posing significant rainfall and coastal hazards across Mexico's Pacific coast. The system is tracking northwestward at 12 mph with a well-defined circulation and organized convection, placing vulnerable communities in Nayarit, Jalisco, and Sinaloa states under flood watch through July 4. Ship traffic and fishing operations in the Eastern Pacific have been advised to avoid the system's track.
Tropical Storm Douglas formed from a low-pressure system over anomalously warm water (28–29°C) in the Eastern Pacific, where the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) channels moisture-rich air masses northwestward. The system's rapid organization reflects the classic two-ingredient recipe: warm sea-surface temperature and low wind shear—atmospheric conditions that allow convective towers to remain vertical and feed the growing circulation. As Douglas moves into higher latitude waters (cooling below 26°C), weakening is expected by July 5.
Real-time NOAA satellite imagery (GOES-16, GOES-18) and Navy JTWC microwave data reveal Douglas's cloud-top temperatures (−60°C) and wind-field asymmetry, confirming organization and intensity. Integrated water vapor (IWV) maps from NOAA's Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (UCAPS) quantify moisture availability across the Eastern Pacific, while sea-surface temperature overlays demonstrate the warm-water corridor sustaining the storm.
Mexico's Pacific coast averages 15–20 tropical cyclone impacts per decade, with June–October the peak season. Storm surge of 1–3 m and orographic rainfall (500+ mm in 24 hours) pose the greatest flash-flood risk in coastal valleys.
Track Douglas in real time using Pandita Data's 3D Weather and Atmospheric Dynamics simulation, updated every 6 hours with NOAA data.