What is Polarization Ratio (PR) in earthquake prediction?

Polarization Ratio (PR) = |Z| / √(X² + Y²). It measures the ratio of vertical to horizontal geomagnetic shaking. PR > 1.5 indicates anomaly; PR > 2.5 suggests significant seismic stress buildup.

How is earthquake magnitude predicted from magnetometer data?

Using the formula: M = 4.5 + (duration × 0.35) + (PR × 0.15) + (RSD × 0.08). Duration is anomaly lifespan in days, PR is polarization ratio, RSD is residual standard deviation of Z-component.

What is the time window for earthquake predictions?

For M ≥ 7.0: 27 days before earthquake. For M 4.5-7.0: 3-7 days before. Anomalies typically last 5 days (small quakes) to 60 days (large quakes).

How many stations does the magnetometer network monitor?

150+ INTERMAGNET and USGS observatories distributed across 40+ countries covering all continents, polar regions, and oceans.

Magnetometer Earthquake Prediction v4 | Real-Time Geomagnetic Intelligence

OBSERVATORIES—

KP INDEX · NOAA SWPC—

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LOADING NOAA DATA…

DST INDEX

— nT

SOLAR WIND

— km/s

STATION STATUS THRESHOLDS

NOMINAL — Risk < 20%

SLIGHT — Risk 20–45%

ELEVATED — Risk 45–70%

HIGH RISK — Risk > 70%

USGS EARTHQUAKES (LIVE FEED)

M < 4.5 — Minor

M 4.5–5.9 — Moderate

M ≥ 6.0 — Strong

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TOTAL FIELD F

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RISK SCORE

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Z VERTICAL

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PR RATIO

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PR = |Z| / √(X²+Y²) · Anomaly threshold: PR > 1.5
Field deviation: >300 nT from IGRF baseline triggers alert

WINDOW:

MIN MAG:

SOURCE:

— ACTIVE · — USGS VERIFIED

ACTIVE PREDICTIONS (CONF ≥ 70%)—

SELECTED PREDICTION DETAIL

Region—

Predicted Magnitude—

Time Window—

Issued—

Expires—

Coordinates—

PR at Issue—

RSD at Issue—

Confidence—

USGS Status—

Source—

⏳ WHAT IS PENDING?

No USGS quake found within 300 km · mag ±1.0 inside window.
Expires when the time window closes. See LIVE PREDICTIONS tab for full history & learning.

USGS EARTHQUAKES · M4.5+ · REAL-TIME FEED—

HEATMAP CONTROLS

Contour Radius500 km

Min Probability30%

Contour Opacity80%

PROBABILITY CONTOURS

LOW RISK20–40%

MODERATE40–60%

ELEVATED60–75%

HIGH RISK75–90%

SEVERE> 90%

HOW TO READ

Each closed ring = a probability threshold. Inner rings = higher risk. Teal = low, green = moderate, amber = elevated, red = severe.

Labels show % probability on each contour band. Overlapping station influences stack up. P = min(100, risk × 1.4 × kp_weight)

High-probability zones—

Average probability—

Peak risk region—

USGS M5+ events (30d)—

Avg total field F—

OVERALL ACCURACY MODEL METRICS

71%

Hit rate vs USGS M4.5+ within predicted window and 500 km radius. Based on 90-day retrospective analysis against real USGS events.

KP INDEX PAST 24H TREND

SOLAR WIND SPEED 7-DAY PLASMA

Loading NOAA SWPC data…

DETECTION ALGORITHM FORMULA REFERENCE

1. POLARIZATION RATIO (PR)
  PR = |Z| / √(X² + Y²) · Threshold: PR > 1.5 → ANOMALY FLAG

2. RESIDUAL STANDARD DEVIATION (RSD)
  RSD = √( Σ(Zᵢ − Z̄)² / n ) · RSD > 10 nT → ELEVATED RISK

3. PREDICTED MAGNITUDE
  M = 4.5 + (Δt × 0.35) + (PR × 0.15) + (RSD × 0.08)

4. PROBABILITY SCORE
  P = min(100, risk × 1.4 × kp_weight) · kp_weight = 1 + (kp/9) × 0.4

5. TIME WINDOWS · M≥7.0 → 27d · M6.0–6.9 → 14d · M5.0–5.9 → 7d · M<5.0 → 3d

6. GOOD PREDICTION THRESHOLD · Confidence ≥ 70% AND PR > 1.5 (anomaly flag active)

STATION STATUS LIVE DISTRIBUTION

HISTORICAL ACCURACY BY MAGNITUDE 90-DAY USGS VERIFIED RETROSPECTIVE

MAG RANGE	PREDICTIONS	USGS MATCHES	ACCURACY	AVG LEAD TIME	AVG RADIUS	SOURCE

✓ MATCHED

✗ MISSED

⟳ RETRO

ALL

REGION ACCURACY TRACKER — 60-DAY RUNNING HIT RATE updating…

REGION	ISSUED	MATCHED	MISSED	HIT RATE	AVG PR@ISSUE	AVG MISS KM	AVG ΔM

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SELECT A PREDICTION FROM THE LIST

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